Why a strong El Niño doesn't always mean a weak Indian monsoon

Seven Indian monsoons since 1950 have coincided with moderate or strong El Niños, and in five of them, including 2026, rainfall was at least 10% below average. But 1997, during one of the century's strongest El Niños, ended with near-normal rain. The 2026 monsoon finished about 13% below average, with East and Northeast India recording their driest season since 1901.