Record Pacific heat fuels fears of a historic El Niño

Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific's Niño 3.4 region have repeatedly broken records this year, and the world's oceans outside the poles hit a record average of 21.18°C on August 22. The US NOAA puts the chance of a strong to very strong El Niño at 83%, with the 2026-27 event projected to surpass the three strongest on record.